Nuclear Weapons Proliferation in the Next Decade

The intensification of the Iranian and North Korean nuclear crises has created new fears that deteriorating security conditions in the Middle East, Northeast Asia, and other regions will lead additional countries to seek their own nuclear arsenals in the years to come.

This special issue examines the factors that are likely to shape nuclear weapons proliferation over the next decade. The internationally recognized authors of this issue, many of whom are prominent scholars and others of whom have held influential governmental positions with responsibility for countering nuclear proliferation, bring to light the conditions and events that might drive new countries to pursue nuclear weapons; the indicators and cautionary signs that can provide early warning that a country is interested in building nuclear bombs; and the policy and military measures that can be adopted to prevent or at least dissuade new proliferators. The introductory chapter develops a novel analytical approach focusing on the role of nuclear myths and mythmakers and the subsequent chapters draw on this approach to help analysts better understand and policy makers better manage nuclear proliferation over the next ten years.

1. "Nuclear Proliferation over the Next Decade: Causes, Warning Signs, and Policy Responses" Peter R. Lavoy, Naval Postgraduate School

Section 1: Insights from the Past: Theory, Intelligence, and Policy

2. "Theories of Nuclear Proliferation: The State of the Field" Jacques E. C. Hymans, Smith College

3. "Anticipating Nuclear Proliferation: Insights from the Past" Torrey C. Froscher, private consultant

4. "Countering Proliferation: A Baker’s Dozen Policy Insights from Past Wins, Losses, and Draws" Lewis Dunn, SAIC

5. "Identifying Nuclear Aspirants and their Pathways to the Bomb" Robert J. Einhorn, Center for Strategic and International Studies

Section 2: Past Cases of Nuclear Proliferation and Nuclear Reversal

6. "Nuclear Proliferation Motivations: Lessons from Pakistan" Feroz Hassan Khan, Naval Postgraduate School

7. "South Africa’s Nuclear Weapons Policies" Stephen F. Burgess, U.S. Air War College

8. "Lessons Learned from Iran’s Pursuit of Nuclear Weapons," Mark Fitzpatrick, International Institute of Strategic Studies

9. "Nuclear U-Turns: Learning from South Korean and Taiwanese Rollback" Rebecca K.C. Hersman and Robert Peters, National Defense University

10. "Egypt’s Nuclear Weapons Program: Lessons Learned" Maria Rost Rublee, University of Tampa

Section 3: Future Nuclear Proliferation Risks

11. "Nuclear Proliferation in Europe: Could It Still Happen?" Bruno Tertrais, Foundation pour la Recherche Strategique

12. "The Future of Nuclear Weapons in the Middle East" Abbas Kadhim, Naval Postgraduate School

13. "Future Nuclear Proliferation Scenarios in Northeast Asia" James Clay Moltz, Center for Nonproliferation Studies

14. "Prospects for Nuclear Proliferation in Southeast Asia, 2006-2016" Michael S. Malley, Naval Postgraduate School

15. "Assessing Potential Nuclear Proliferation Networks in Latin America: 2006-2016" Harold A. Trinkunas, Naval Postgraduate School

Section 3: New Dynamics in the Proliferation Environment

16. "The Nuclear Energy Market and the Nonproliferation Regime" Chaim Braun

17. "Peering into the Abyss: Non-State Actors and the 2016 Proliferation Environment" James A. Russell

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